ESTUDO DA APLICAÇÃO DE MÉTODOS DE PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA COM AVALIAÇÃO DE RESULTADOS ATRAVÉS DE MÉDIA ABSOLUTA, EM UMA CADEIA DE SUPRIMENTOS DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL

Abstract

This reasearch aims to deepen the knowledge about the application of demand forecasting methods in small companies into the construction industry. Starting from a bibliographical analysis of small companies and the characteristics of this type of production, two front of analisys were made, the first one focused on demand forecesting methods inside a constrution company and the second one focused on demand forecest methods practiced by competing companies. The application of the demand forecest methods was carried out in the time series of data collected in the sales department of the construction company, focusing in analyse the quantitative demand forecasting methods, seeking to verify which is the best among the choosed methods. To compare the obteined results in this internal analysis, an exploratory survey was made in competing companies that fit the desired profile, seeking to know the most used type of demand forecasting methodd. The mean absolute deviation and the mean absolute percentage error were used to classify the demand forecasting methods. The research methodology is classified as exploratory, using two types of analysis, a cross-section survey (qualitative) and a case study (quantitative). About the demand forecasting methods that were studied in the case study company, we have the qualitative method as a negative result and the additive Holt-Winters demand forecasting method as a positive result, because it is able to approximate the results of the qualitative model practiced by the companies that compete with the supply chain.