THE IMPACT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES IN SÃO PAULO

Resumo

This work analyzed the potential impact of electrifying the heavy-duty vehicle fleet in the State of São Paulo, replacing diesel internal combustion engines with electric vehicles. Using updated data on the state's energy mix provided by the Secretaria de Meio Ambiente Infraestrutura e Logística (2024) and information on the mileage driven by vehicle type, the total electric energy consumption needed for the electrified fleet, current diesel consumption, and associated CO₂ emissions for each scenario were estimated. The analysis showed that electrification could reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 88.4%, saving approximately 43.79 million tons of CO₂ per year. However, the transition would result in a significant increase in the state's electricity demand, requiring substantial investments in energy and highway infrastructure. The study also explored the implications for the oil and gas sector, which would experience a sharp decline in diesel demand, and the opportunities for new business models, such as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology integration and the Energy-as-a-Service (EaaS) model. We concluded that the electrification of São Paulo's heavy-duty vehicle fleet is a viable path towards decarbonization and alignment with global sustainability goals.